In 1995 I lived in Moscow. I was studying Russian and living with a Russian family.
Here are five basic realities you won´t see on CNN or ABC, government press releases, or anyplace else.
1. The United States has a gigantic agricultural area that is, in a word, incomparable.
Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Ohio: the Midwest has the combination of soil, rainfall, sunlight, temperature, transportation to feed the nation and much more. Don´t forget California and Texas either. No wonder the U.S. is the world´s top agricultural goods exporter in the world (118 billion in 2019).
The comparable agricultural area in Russia is tiny. That means Russia must dedicate more resources just to feed itself.
There is, however, an area nearby that has the magic combination furnished by nature: Ukraine. The size of Texas, it is among the top five wheat world producers.
That makes Ukraine an attractive target and acquisition.
2. Mongol hoards conquered and ruled Russia for 240 years, 1200-1400 AD. For perspective, keep in mind that the United States has only been a country for 240+ years. Rapes, stealing, beatings, humiliations, murders – you name it.
The result is a national psychosis regarding foreign invasion. As Hitler and Napoleon discovered, Russians are among the top peoples that ever existed who will fight and die to defend their country.
However,
…
3. Contrary to what Americans are told, Russians have learned from disastrous experience, and are a peace-loving people. Their national sport is not boxing or wrestling or other contact sports, but mushroom hunting. Despising invaders, they do not have an invader mentality themselves.
Conclusion: the longer the war in Ukraine continues, the more Putin´s invading troops will have serious – perhaps catastrophic - morale problems. They have already shown they are risk adverse.
4. Unlike Americans, Russians have a superb sensitivity to the absurdity of life. A widely-circulated Russian joke encapsulates it:
Two Russian generals are talking.
General 1: I think that to solve our economic problems, we should declare war on the United States.
General 2: Are you crazy? There is absolutely no way we could win.
General 1: that is exactly my point. Germany declared war on the U.S. and lost. Today, Germany is the richest country in Europe. Also, Japan declared war on the U.S. and lost. Today, Japan is the richest country in the Orient.
General 2 thought a minute, then responded:
But what if we win?
When Putin began amassing troops on the Ukrainian border, NATO should have immediately granted Ukraine full membership. This explanation for doing so would be delivered with an unseen smile:
“Looking at a map and world history, you would think that NATO membership for Ukraine would be against the security interests of Russia. Yet President Putin moved heaven and earth to achieve that very outcome. And now, having achieved his goal against all odds, all he can do is complain. All I can say is that´s the dialectic for you, and those are the contradictions.”
I don´t know a single Russian who would not appreciate that response. 141 million unseen smiles
…
5. Who is the real winner in the Ukrainian war?
Answer: China.
Imagine a country almost the exact geographical size as the United States, but with one billion more inhabitants? That is China´s reality.
As you can also imagine, there is excruciating pressure to immigrate, to limit family size, to take other extreme measures.
Living space. Now you know why China looks with longing eyes at Russia´s Siberia region. There have been border skirmishes. Will the next world war be between Russia and China?
You can be sure the Chinese are watching with unabashed, unabridged attention every move Putin´s military makes. His heavy-handed approach in Ukraine shows Russia has not advanced much beyond 1940s Soviet style warfare.
You can be sure of something else. Chinese generals right now (March 6, 2022) are winking, nodding.
Unbelievable…barnstorming incompetence. We can whip them!
NOTE: NATO´s explanation for not admitting Ukraine is that its eastern region is at war with the central government. Sorry, NATO commanders, but there will always be dissent against joining you. Dissent, therefore, is not a valid reason to reject any nation´s application. If it were, there would be no NATO.
Had Ukraine become a NATO member, Russian generals by now would have resolved the home problem. As they did with Khrushchev after he blinked first in the Cuban missile crisis, they would have put Putin out to pasture.
He would spend the rest of his days anonymously, joyfully, shirtlessly. mushroom hunting.